2017 ATP Finals Preview

Next week, the ATP Finals are taking place in London, with the top 8 players over the year taking part.

The 8 players competing at this year's ATP Finals, © ATP World Tour

After the jump, I'll take a look at the players and how I expect the tournament to go. For my latest ranking update for all the men on the ATP World Tour, go here.

The 8 tennis players who will be playing the ATP Finals, coloured by the group they are in, along with their ELO ratings are:

1. Roger Federer - 1981
2. Rafael Nadal - 1931
3. Marin Cilic- 1780
4. Alexander Zverev - 1777
5. Grigor Dimitrov - 1756
6. David Goffin - 1723
7. Dominic Thiem - 1690
8. Jack Sock - 1690

Last year's champion Andy Murray failed to qualify this year, so who will take his place as champion?

ELO #1 Roger Federer's group, the Boris Becker group, is the tougher of the 2 groups, with 3 of the top 4 players in it with the #8 player, and the other group, the Pete Sampras group, is the easier group, with the 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th ranked players in it. Below, I've estimated the chance for each player to advance, make it to the final, and to win the tournament, ignoring changes in rating following each match.

Sampras Group	Adv	1st	2nd	Final	Win
Rafael Nadal	83.9%	58.5%	25.3%	52.0%	29.8%
Dominic Thiem	30.7%	10.2%	20.5%	8.6%	2.4%
Grigor Dimitrov	47.0%	17.7%	29.3%	17.0%	6.0%
David Goffin	38.4%	13.6%	24.8%	12.3%	3.9%

Becker Group	Adv	1st	2nd	Final	Win
Roger Federer	86.1%	61.6%	24.4%	62.6%	40.7%
Alexander Zverev	44.5%	15.5%	29.0%	19.6%	7.4%
Marin Cilic	45.0%	15.7%	29.3%	19.9%	7.6%
Jack Sock	24.5%	7.2%	17.3%	8.0%	2.2%

Best of luck to all of the players who made it to the ATP Finals, and may the best player win!