The US Open starts later today, and here are my predictions for the Men's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of prediction percentages for you to view.
 |
| US Open Logo, © US Open |
- Roger Federer is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 30.62% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 17.91%. The 3rd most likely is Alexander Zverev with 10.46% and Marin Cilic 4th with 7.6%
- Ernesto Escobedo has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 79th most likely winner, while he is only the 103rd highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Dusan Lajovic has a tough draw. He is the 98h most likely winner, but he is the 70th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Ryan Harrison, as he's the 115th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 52nd of the competitors.
- John-Patrick Smith got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 41st most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 108nd highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Rafael Nadal |
1896 |
90.62% |
82.51% |
68.59% |
54.53% |
43.24% |
24.77% |
17.91% |
| 2 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1502 |
9.38% |
4.88% |
1.75% |
0.55% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Taro Daniel |
1422 |
35.73% |
3.28% |
0.87% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Tommy Paul |
1524 |
64.27% |
9.33% |
3.62% |
1.23% |
0.41% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 5 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1541 |
55.87% |
20.26% |
3.90% |
1.41% |
0.50% |
0.09% |
0.03% |
| 6 |
Geoffery Blancaneaux |
1500 |
44.13% |
13.75% |
2.26% |
0.71% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 7 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1545 |
30.88% |
16.41% |
3.21% |
1.18% |
0.42% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 8 |
Richard Gasquet |
1685 |
69.12% |
49.57% |
15.80% |
8.71% |
4.74% |
1.50% |
0.68% |
| 9 |
Fabio Fognini |
1659 |
72.68% |
51.92% |
26.29% |
8.41% |
4.28% |
1.24% |
0.52% |
| 10 |
Stefano Travaglia |
1489 |
27.32% |
13.29% |
3.90% |
0.66% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 11 |
Victor Troicki |
1525 |
59.25% |
22.54% |
7.55% |
1.48% |
0.49% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 12 |
Norbert Gombos |
1460 |
40.75% |
12.25% |
3.21% |
0.48% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1517 |
45.55% |
12.73% |
5.25% |
1.00% |
0.32% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Alexandr Dolgopolov |
1548 |
54.45% |
17.12% |
7.77% |
1.67% |
0.60% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 15 |
Ryan Harrison |
1534 |
23.61% |
11.81% |
5.13% |
1.04% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.02% |
| 16 |
Tomas Berdych |
1738 |
76.39% |
58.34% |
40.90% |
16.73% |
10.29% |
3.88% |
2.04% |
| 17 |
David Goffin |
1690 |
78.41% |
58.39% |
35.25% |
20.58% |
7.69% |
2.48% |
1.14% |
| 18 |
Julien Bennetau |
1466 |
21.59% |
9.63% |
2.98% |
0.89% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Steve Darcis |
1491 |
46.55% |
14.19% |
4.82% |
1.58% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Guido Pella |
1515 |
53.45% |
17.79% |
6.58% |
2.34% |
0.46% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 21 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1402 |
28.01% |
5.88% |
1.45% |
0.34% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 22 |
Donald Young |
1566 |
71.99% |
28.59% |
12.63% |
5.31% |
1.28% |
0.26% |
0.08% |
| 23 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1528 |
28.71% |
14.63% |
5.74% |
2.13% |
0.44% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 24 |
Gael Monfils |
1686 |
71.29% |
50.90% |
30.55% |
17.68% |
6.52% |
2.08% |
0.95% |
| 25 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1584 |
55.30% |
33.86% |
13.96% |
6.05% |
1.57% |
0.34% |
0.11% |
| 26 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1547 |
44.70% |
25.06% |
9.17% |
3.53% |
0.79% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 27 |
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe |
1499 |
48.42% |
19.51% |
6.03% |
1.96% |
0.36% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 28 |
Nicolas Kicker |
1510 |
51.58% |
21.58% |
6.94% |
2.35% |
0.45% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 29 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1538 |
52.88% |
16.37% |
8.09% |
3.02% |
0.65% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 30 |
Andrey Rublev |
1518 |
47.12% |
13.54% |
6.30% |
2.19% |
0.44% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 31 |
Vaclav Safranek |
1500 |
20.73% |
9.52% |
4.19% |
1.37% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 32 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1733 |
79.27% |
60.58% |
45.32% |
28.71% |
12.22% |
4.54% |
2.35% |
| 33 |
Roger Federer |
1949 |
95.36% |
90.52% |
80.89% |
67.55% |
55.05% |
39.36% |
30.62% |
| 34 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1424 |
4.64% |
2.22% |
0.66% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Blaz Kavcic |
1450 |
53.16% |
4.04% |
1.33% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Mikhail Youzhny |
1428 |
46.84% |
3.22% |
0.97% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1581 |
63.61% |
30.88% |
5.04% |
2.07% |
0.76% |
0.21% |
0.07% |
| 38 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1484 |
36.39% |
12.79% |
1.43% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 39 |
Andrey Kuznetsov |
1556 |
41.45% |
21.32% |
3.16% |
1.20% |
0.40% |
0.10% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1616 |
58.55% |
35.01% |
6.51% |
2.96% |
1.22% |
0.38% |
0.14% |
| 41 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1654 |
79.36% |
60.81% |
30.74% |
7.54% |
3.49% |
1.23% |
0.51% |
| 42 |
Tim Smyczek |
1420 |
20.64% |
9.55% |
2.25% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Vincent Millot |
1473 |
59.39% |
19.35% |
5.57% |
0.68% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 44 |
Santiago Giraldo |
1407 |
40.61% |
10.30% |
2.30% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Malek Jaziri |
1479 |
52.88% |
12.86% |
4.87% |
0.61% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 46 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1459 |
47.12% |
10.55% |
3.74% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
John Millman |
1512 |
21.59% |
12.11% |
5.09% |
0.73% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1736 |
78.41% |
64.48% |
45.44% |
14.66% |
8.43% |
3.82% |
2.00% |
| 49 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1734 |
76.08% |
61.24% |
39.69% |
24.41% |
8.47% |
3.82% |
1.99% |
| 50 |
Andreas Seppi |
1533 |
23.92% |
13.51% |
5.27% |
1.86% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 51 |
Dustin Brown |
1481 |
48.13% |
11.82% |
3.87% |
1.13% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 52 |
Thomaz Bellucci |
1494 |
51.87% |
13.43% |
4.60% |
1.41% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Patrick Kypson |
1500 |
55.59% |
16.68% |
5.31% |
1.66% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 54 |
Adrian Menendez-Maceiras |
1461 |
44.41% |
11.46% |
3.16% |
0.85% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Henri Laaksonen |
1487 |
22.38% |
11.33% |
3.44% |
1.03% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 56 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1703 |
77.62% |
60.53% |
34.68% |
19.93% |
6.26% |
2.58% |
1.23% |
| 57 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1603 |
74.47% |
42.95% |
17.87% |
7.47% |
1.64% |
0.48% |
0.17% |
| 58 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1417 |
25.53% |
8.26% |
1.73% |
0.36% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Bjorn Fratangelo |
1476 |
34.68% |
13.56% |
3.62% |
0.97% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1586 |
65.32% |
35.23% |
13.90% |
5.51% |
1.13% |
0.31% |
0.10% |
| 61 |
Marcos Baghdatis |
1576 |
60.63% |
20.62% |
10.62% |
4.07% |
0.80% |
0.21% |
0.07% |
| 62 |
Taylor Fritz |
1501 |
39.37% |
10.15% |
4.17% |
1.23% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Alex De Minaur |
1483 |
18.21% |
7.47% |
2.89% |
0.80% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 64 |
Dominic Thiem |
1744 |
81.79% |
61.76% |
45.20% |
27.32% |
9.79% |
4.54% |
2.42% |
| 65 |
Sam Querrey |
1674 |
68.88% |
52.51% |
35.97% |
22.22% |
9.62% |
4.67% |
1.34% |
| 66 |
Gilles Simon |
1536 |
31.12% |
18.42% |
9.32% |
4.01% |
1.08% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
| 67 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1482 |
53.31% |
16.15% |
6.99% |
2.51% |
0.54% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 68 |
Dudi Sela |
1459 |
46.69% |
12.91% |
5.19% |
1.72% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 69 |
Radu Albot |
1420 |
44.27% |
13.62% |
3.88% |
1.11% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Ernesto Escobedo |
1460 |
55.73% |
19.88% |
6.59% |
2.19% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Yen-Hsun Lu |
1455 |
28.95% |
15.00% |
4.88% |
1.59% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 72 |
Karen Khachanov |
1611 |
71.05% |
51.50% |
27.18% |
14.49% |
5.13% |
2.06% |
0.46% |
| 73 |
Mischa Zverev |
1576 |
62.13% |
37.85% |
17.30% |
8.42% |
2.64% |
0.94% |
0.18% |
| 74 |
Thai-Son Kwiatkowski |
1490 |
37.87% |
18.53% |
6.38% |
2.38% |
0.53% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 75 |
Lukas Lacko |
1438 |
36.79% |
13.05% |
3.69% |
1.14% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Benoit Paire |
1532 |
63.21% |
30.57% |
12.17% |
5.21% |
1.38% |
0.42% |
0.07% |
| 77 |
Horacio Zeballos |
1530 |
46.98% |
17.09% |
8.57% |
3.65% |
0.96% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
| 78 |
Chung Hyeon |
1551 |
53.02% |
20.70% |
11.00% |
4.99% |
1.42% |
0.47% |
0.08% |
| 79 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1482 |
24.34% |
10.12% |
4.40% |
1.60% |
0.35% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 80 |
John Isner |
1679 |
75.66% |
52.09% |
36.50% |
22.78% |
10.01% |
4.93% |
1.44% |
| 81 |
Jack Sock |
1690 |
79.55% |
64.67% |
38.91% |
17.31% |
10.65% |
5.40% |
1.64% |
| 82 |
Jordan Thompson |
1454 |
20.45% |
10.82% |
3.22% |
0.62% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
John-Patrick Smith |
1457 |
57.99% |
15.54% |
4.68% |
0.91% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 84 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1401 |
42.01% |
8.97% |
2.16% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 85 |
Joao Sousa |
1500 |
48.99% |
14.80% |
5.45% |
1.27% |
0.46% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 86 |
Paolo Lorenzi |
1507 |
51.01% |
15.83% |
5.96% |
1.43% |
0.53% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 87 |
Bernard Tomic |
1532 |
27.89% |
15.08% |
6.14% |
1.62% |
0.65% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 88 |
Gilles Muller |
1697 |
72.11% |
54.28% |
33.48% |
15.19% |
9.49% |
4.90% |
1.53% |
| 89 |
Kevin Anderson |
1677 |
73.48% |
54.26% |
21.78% |
12.00% |
7.18% |
3.52% |
1.02% |
| 90 |
JC Aragone |
1500 |
26.52% |
13.40% |
2.88% |
0.93% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Alessandro Giannessi |
1508 |
53.59% |
18.07% |
4.02% |
1.33% |
0.49% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 92 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1483 |
46.41% |
14.26% |
2.87% |
0.87% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 93 |
Jiri Vesely |
1561 |
50.72% |
11.63% |
5.28% |
2.09% |
0.92% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
| 94 |
Borna Coric |
1556 |
49.28% |
11.08% |
4.95% |
1.93% |
0.84% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
| 95 |
Darian King |
1494 |
12.69% |
5.18% |
1.90% |
0.60% |
0.21% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 96 |
Alexander Zverev |
1829 |
87.31% |
72.11% |
56.32% |
41.57% |
32.26% |
22.12% |
10.46% |
| 97 |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
1732 |
82.88% |
61.56% |
44.07% |
30.64% |
17.37% |
9.36% |
3.29% |
| 98 |
Marius Copil |
1458 |
17.12% |
6.40% |
2.20% |
0.75% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1533 |
46.12% |
14.01% |
6.25% |
2.72% |
0.86% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
| 100 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1560 |
53.88% |
18.02% |
8.73% |
4.12% |
1.43% |
0.46% |
0.08% |
| 101 |
Nicolas Almagro |
1547 |
42.57% |
20.36% |
7.28% |
3.31% |
1.10% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
| 102 |
Steve Johnson |
1599 |
57.43% |
31.75% |
13.43% |
7.05% |
2.78% |
1.02% |
0.22% |
| 103 |
Kyle Edmund |
1572 |
53.02% |
26.14% |
10.16% |
4.96% |
1.79% |
0.60% |
0.11% |
| 104 |
Robin Haase |
1551 |
46.98% |
21.75% |
7.88% |
3.62% |
1.22% |
0.38% |
0.07% |
| 105 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1593 |
70.94% |
46.31% |
23.39% |
10.32% |
4.00% |
1.43% |
0.30% |
| 106 |
Denis Istomin |
1438 |
29.06% |
12.66% |
3.90% |
0.99% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1468 |
45.98% |
17.94% |
6.16% |
1.76% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 108 |
Nicolas Mahut |
1496 |
54.02% |
23.09% |
8.73% |
2.77% |
0.76% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 109 |
Dmitry Tursunov |
1440 |
42.15% |
11.07% |
4.19% |
1.07% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Cameron Norrie |
1495 |
57.85% |
18.82% |
8.53% |
2.70% |
0.74% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 111 |
Evan King |
1504 |
27.43% |
14.97% |
6.97% |
2.28% |
0.65% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 112 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1673 |
72.57% |
55.14% |
38.12% |
20.93% |
10.26% |
4.72% |
1.35% |
| 113 |
Lucas Pouille |
1637 |
71.76% |
46.08% |
25.74% |
11.51% |
5.83% |
2.41% |
0.60% |
| 114 |
Ruben Bemelmans |
1475 |
28.24% |
11.75% |
4.15% |
1.10% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 115 |
Jared Donaldson |
1563 |
60.22% |
27.68% |
12.81% |
4.60% |
1.87% |
0.60% |
0.11% |
| 116 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1491 |
39.78% |
14.48% |
5.39% |
1.51% |
0.48% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 117 |
Andreas Haider-Maurer |
1453 |
55.73% |
15.46% |
5.17% |
1.26% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 118 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1413 |
44.27% |
10.47% |
3.00% |
0.62% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1451 |
21.40% |
11.18% |
3.71% |
0.90% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 120 |
David Ferrer |
1677 |
78.60% |
62.89% |
40.03% |
19.89% |
11.14% |
5.19% |
1.51% |
| 121 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1576 |
65.32% |
41.80% |
14.13% |
6.46% |
2.74% |
0.93% |
0.18% |
| 122 |
Carlos Berlocq |
1466 |
34.68% |
16.87% |
3.84% |
1.22% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 123 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1498 |
57.57% |
25.55% |
6.57% |
2.34% |
0.76% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 124 |
Janko Tipsarevic |
1445 |
42.43% |
15.78% |
3.31% |
0.97% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 125 |
Rogerio Dutra Silva |
1421 |
35.20% |
5.42% |
2.00% |
0.53% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Florian Mayer |
1527 |
64.80% |
15.56% |
8.00% |
3.14% |
1.13% |
0.32% |
0.05% |
| 127 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1482 |
14.81% |
7.24% |
3.27% |
1.10% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 128 |
Marin Cilic |
1786 |
85.19% |
71.78% |
58.90% |
42.84% |
29.89% |
18.19% |
7.60% |
