Sunday, 2 July 2017

2017 Wimbledon Predictions - Women's

The Wimbledon Championships are starting tomorrow,  and here are my predictions for the Women's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.

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  • Karolina Pliskova is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 12.12% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep next at 11.57%. The 3rd most likely is Petra Kvitova with 9.47% and Elina Svitolina 4th with 7.99%
  • Jennifer Brady has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 103rd most likely winner, while she is only the 116th highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Timea Babos and Anna Blinkova have tough draws. They are the 111th and 101st most likely winners, but they are the 94th and 84th highest ranked players competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Ashleigh Barty, as she's the 115th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 30th of the competitors. 
  • Jennifer Brady also got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 49th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 116th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Angelique Kerber 1718 83.04% 63.69% 45.10% 30.14% 18.22% 9.64% 4.81%
2 Irina Falconi 1442 16.96% 6.82% 2.31% 0.71% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
3 Kirsten Flipkens 1522 53.45% 16.41% 7.31% 2.99% 1.03% 0.29% 0.07%
4 Misaki Doi 1498 46.55% 13.08% 5.39% 2.04% 0.64% 0.16% 0.04%
5 Shelby Rogers 1538 54.02% 23.84% 8.79% 3.78% 1.38% 0.41% 0.11%
6 Julia Boserup 1510 45.98% 18.53% 6.21% 2.44% 0.81% 0.22% 0.05%
7 Oceane Dodin 1503 33.90% 15.87% 5.19% 2.00% 0.64% 0.17% 0.04%
8 Lucie Safarova 1619 66.10% 41.76% 19.70% 10.64% 5.02% 1.99% 0.73%
9 Kiki Bertens 1577 52.16% 32.18% 15.12% 6.56% 2.73% 0.94% 0.30%
10 Sorana Cirstea 1562 47.84% 28.53% 12.84% 5.32% 2.11% 0.69% 0.21%
11 Magda Linette 1488 48.27% 18.56% 6.61% 2.12% 0.65% 0.16% 0.04%
12 Bethanie Mattek-Sands 1500 51.73% 20.74% 7.69% 2.58% 0.82% 0.21% 0.05%
13 Yanina Wickmayer 1495 54.31% 17.21% 7.50% 2.48% 0.77% 0.20% 0.04%
14 Kateryna Bondarenko 1465 45.69% 12.93% 5.10% 1.50% 0.42% 0.09% 0.02%
15 Ekaterina Alexandrova 1477 23.40% 11.56% 4.75% 1.47% 0.43% 0.10% 0.02%
16 Garbine Muguruza 1683 76.60% 58.31% 40.39% 23.23% 12.97% 6.25% 2.82%
17 Agnieszka Radwanska 1676 73.25% 53.90% 33.94% 19.09% 10.71% 5.06% 2.24%
18 Jelena Jankovic 1501 26.75% 13.49% 5.29% 1.79% 0.59% 0.15% 0.04%
19 Katie Boulter 1500 50.58% 16.61% 6.50% 2.19% 0.72% 0.19% 0.04%
20 Christina McHale 1496 49.42% 16.00% 6.17% 2.05% 0.67% 0.17% 0.04%
21 Kristina Kucova 1462 44.55% 12.82% 4.20% 1.23% 0.35% 0.08% 0.02%
22 Bianca Andreescu 1500 55.45% 18.52% 6.94% 2.34% 0.77% 0.20% 0.05%
23 Monica Puig 1579 40.06% 25.41% 12.17% 5.29% 2.28% 0.79% 0.25%
24 Timea Bacsinszky 1649 59.94% 43.25% 24.78% 13.06% 6.85% 2.99% 1.21%
25 Lauren Davis 1584 61.04% 41.56% 16.79% 7.91% 3.45% 1.22% 0.40%
26 Varvara Lepchenko 1506 38.96% 22.48% 6.96% 2.55% 0.86% 0.23% 0.05%
27 Polona Hercog 1429 44.13% 14.55% 3.33% 0.92% 0.23% 0.04% 0.01%
28 Annika Beck 1470 55.87% 21.41% 5.78% 1.87% 0.55% 0.12% 0.03%
29 Ekaterina Makarova 1582 68.88% 24.97% 14.64% 6.86% 2.98% 1.04% 0.34%
30 Alison Van Uytvanck 1444 31.12% 6.68% 2.65% 0.77% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
31 Ons Jabeur 1483 19.26% 8.12% 3.65% 1.23% 0.38% 0.09% 0.02%
32 Svetlana Kuznetsova 1732 80.74% 60.22% 46.20% 30.86% 19.57% 10.72% 5.55%
33 Karolina Pliskova 1796 87.62% 72.19% 57.35% 42.97% 29.29% 20.06% 12.12%
34 Evgeniya Rodina 1456 12.38% 4.93% 1.76% 0.56% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01%
35 Monica Niculescu 1535 52.16% 12.27% 5.72% 2.39% 0.81% 0.28% 0.07%
36 Magdalena Rybarikova 1520 47.84% 10.61% 4.72% 1.88% 0.60% 0.19% 0.05%
37 Lesia Tsurenko 1569 45.41% 26.14% 8.21% 3.80% 1.45% 0.56% 0.17%
38 Julia Gorges 1601 54.59% 33.84% 11.83% 5.99% 2.54% 1.08% 0.37%
39 Viktorija Golubic 1502 46.27% 17.63% 4.34% 1.63% 0.49% 0.15% 0.03%
40 Zhang Shuai 1528 53.73% 22.40% 6.07% 2.48% 0.82% 0.27% 0.07%
41 Daria Gavrilova 1631 71.99% 49.77% 27.59% 11.62% 5.40% 2.52% 0.96%
42 Petra Martic 1467 28.01% 13.05% 4.47% 1.07% 0.28% 0.07% 0.01%
43 Denisa Allertova 1498 52.16% 19.87% 7.56% 2.04% 0.60% 0.18% 0.04%
44 Risa Ozaki 1483 47.84% 17.31% 6.27% 1.59% 0.44% 0.12% 0.03%
45 Han Xinyun 1488 55.02% 17.72% 7.18% 1.86% 0.53% 0.15% 0.03%
46 Zarina Diyas 1453 44.98% 12.71% 4.57% 1.03% 0.25% 0.06% 0.01%
47 Arina Rodionova 1453 22.09% 10.43% 3.75% 0.85% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
48 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1672 77.91% 59.14% 38.60% 18.24% 9.49% 4.96% 2.17%
49 Kristina Mladenovic 1700 79.08% 51.26% 36.18% 20.22% 10.53% 5.91% 2.80%
50 Pauline Parmentier 1469 20.92% 6.89% 2.74% 0.73% 0.18% 0.05% 0.01%
51 Alison Riske 1562 42.29% 15.99% 8.40% 3.16% 1.09% 0.41% 0.12%
52 Sloane Stephens 1616 57.71% 25.85% 15.50% 6.92% 2.85% 1.27% 0.46%
53 Tatjana Maria 1404 36.53% 9.80% 2.08% 0.42% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
54 Anastasia Potapova 1500 63.47% 24.67% 7.75% 2.34% 0.65% 0.19% 0.04%
55 Mona Barthel 1548 42.29% 26.02% 9.73% 3.49% 1.15% 0.41% 0.12%
56 Coco Vandeweghe 1602 57.71% 39.51% 17.63% 7.54% 2.98% 1.27% 0.44%
57 Daria Kasatkina 1612 74.69% 39.24% 16.79% 8.30% 3.38% 1.49% 0.53%
58 Zheng Saisai 1424 25.31% 6.95% 1.52% 0.39% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
59 Lara Arruabarrena 1557 41.03% 20.01% 7.20% 3.02% 1.03% 0.38% 0.11%
60 Anett Kontaveit 1620 58.97% 33.80% 14.81% 7.49% 3.13% 1.41% 0.52%
61 Tsvetana Pironkova 1501 44.41% 11.26% 4.23% 1.47% 0.41% 0.12% 0.03%
62 Sara Errani 1540 55.59% 16.36% 7.00% 2.78% 0.89% 0.31% 0.08%
63 Timea Babos 1481 17.70% 7.80% 2.72% 0.88% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01%
64 Caroline Wozniacki 1748 82.30% 64.59% 45.74% 30.85% 17.99% 11.24% 6.07%
65 Dominika Cibulkova 1632 70.94% 53.55% 33.43% 17.00% 7.98% 2.98% 1.23%
66 Andrea Petkovic 1477 29.06% 16.22% 6.62% 2.03% 0.57% 0.12% 0.03%
67 Jennifer Brady 1450 54.31% 17.28% 6.42% 1.78% 0.45% 0.08% 0.02%
68 Danka Kovinic 1420 45.69% 12.95% 4.31% 1.06% 0.23% 0.04% 0.01%
69 Naomi Broady 1464 40.89% 14.62% 5.68% 1.66% 0.44% 0.09% 0.02%
70 Irina-Camelia Begu 1528 59.11% 26.31% 12.43% 4.60% 1.55% 0.39% 0.11%
71 Sabine Lisicki 1534 42.01% 22.93% 11.02% 4.16% 1.43% 0.37% 0.11%
72 Ana Konjuh 1590 57.99% 36.14% 20.08% 9.06% 3.76% 1.21% 0.43%
73 Barbora Strycova 1660 70.58% 48.03% 26.48% 16.84% 8.53% 3.49% 1.57%
74 Veronica Cepede Royg 1508 29.42% 13.91% 4.89% 2.10% 0.66% 0.15% 0.04%
75 Sara Sorribes Tormo 1481 39.23% 12.61% 4.03% 1.58% 0.45% 0.09% 0.02%
76 Naomi Osaka 1557 60.77% 25.46% 10.54% 5.23% 1.95% 0.55% 0.18%
77 Chang Kai-Chen 1461 40.75% 10.05% 3.30% 1.21% 0.32% 0.06% 0.01%
78 Wang Qiang 1526 59.25% 18.95% 7.81% 3.54% 1.19% 0.30% 0.08%
79 Elise Mertens 1561 30.39% 17.83% 8.20% 4.11% 1.55% 0.45% 0.14%
80 Venus Williams 1705 69.61% 53.17% 34.75% 24.04% 13.62% 6.38% 3.26%
81 Jelena Ostapenko 1653 68.75% 51.35% 29.38% 14.82% 8.22% 3.29% 1.45%
82 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1516 31.25% 17.90% 6.89% 2.31% 0.85% 0.21% 0.06%
83 Francoise Abanda 1467 50.58% 15.67% 5.06% 1.42% 0.44% 0.09% 0.02%
84 Kurumi Nara 1463 49.42% 15.08% 4.79% 1.32% 0.40% 0.08% 0.02%
85 Camila Giorgi 1555 51.29% 21.15% 10.12% 3.85% 1.62% 0.46% 0.14%
86 Alize Cornet 1546 48.71% 19.50% 9.09% 3.36% 1.38% 0.37% 0.11%
87 Nao Hibino 1477 25.20% 9.97% 3.74% 1.09% 0.35% 0.07% 0.02%
88 Madison Keys 1666 74.80% 49.38% 30.92% 16.11% 9.22% 3.84% 1.76%
89 Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 1567 55.02% 33.91% 12.15% 5.47% 2.39% 0.71% 0.23%
90 Carina Witthoft 1532 44.98% 25.54% 8.12% 3.27% 1.28% 0.33% 0.09%
91 Aryna Sabalenka 1489 51.29% 21.11% 5.74% 1.99% 0.67% 0.14% 0.04%
92 Irina Khromacheva 1480 48.71% 19.44% 5.11% 1.72% 0.56% 0.12% 0.03%
93 Francesca Schiavone 1502 59.52% 13.67% 6.40% 2.33% 0.82% 0.19% 0.05%
94 Mandy Minella 1435 40.48% 6.90% 2.59% 0.73% 0.20% 0.03% 0.01%
95 Ashleigh Barty 1599 27.55% 18.46% 11.15% 5.51% 2.65% 0.88% 0.32%
96 Elina Svitolina 1767 72.45% 60.97% 48.74% 34.70% 24.29% 13.43% 7.99%
97 Johanna Konta 1741 81.45% 64.73% 50.18% 28.89% 15.85% 9.70% 5.43%
98 Hseih Su-Wei 1484 18.55% 8.70% 3.85% 1.03% 0.24% 0.07% 0.02%
99 Donna Vekic 1494 46.84% 11.88% 5.43% 1.51% 0.37% 0.11% 0.03%
100 Natalia Vikhlyantseva 1516 53.16% 14.69% 7.17% 2.16% 0.58% 0.18% 0.05%
101 Katerina Siniakova 1534 63.47% 31.31% 10.77% 3.46% 1.00% 0.34% 0.10%
102 Maria Sakkari 1438 36.53% 13.12% 3.16% 0.71% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
103 Kristyna Pliskova 1544 51.58% 29.05% 10.34% 3.44% 1.03% 0.36% 0.11%
104 Roberta Vinci 1533 48.42% 26.52% 9.09% 2.91% 0.83% 0.28% 0.08%
105 Caroline Garcia 1626 71.05% 49.82% 20.19% 9.97% 3.96% 1.82% 0.73%
106 Jana Cepelova 1470 28.95% 14.19% 3.39% 1.02% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01%
107 Duan Yingying 1502 58.69% 22.98% 6.19% 2.09% 0.53% 0.16% 0.04%
108 Ana Bogdan 1441 41.31% 13.01% 2.77% 0.75% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
109 Madison Brengle 1474 49.42% 9.64% 3.81% 1.17% 0.26% 0.07% 0.02%
110 Richel Hogenkamp 1478 50.58% 10.03% 4.02% 1.25% 0.29% 0.08% 0.02%
111 Johanna Larsson 1527 18.46% 10.58% 4.93% 1.82% 0.51% 0.17% 0.05%
112 Petra Kvitova 1785 81.54% 69.75% 54.70% 37.83% 22.93% 15.31% 9.47%
113 Elena Vesnina 1595 63.74% 23.95% 12.75% 4.57% 1.70% 0.71% 0.26%
114 Anna Blinkova 1497 36.26% 9.38% 3.74% 0.94% 0.25% 0.07% 0.02%
115 Victoria Azarenka 1730 69.98% 50.67% 35.85% 18.94% 10.32% 6.17% 3.36%
116 Catherine Bellis 1583 30.02% 16.00% 8.26% 2.84% 1.01% 0.41% 0.14%
117 Maryna Zanevska 1415 33.39% 8.59% 1.84% 0.33% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
118 Heather Watson 1535 66.61% 27.04% 9.32% 2.71% 0.82% 0.28% 0.08%
119 Yulia Putintseva 1539 36.13% 20.27% 7.09% 2.09% 0.64% 0.22% 0.07%
120 Anastasija Sevastova 1638 63.87% 44.10% 21.16% 8.69% 3.69% 1.75% 0.74%
121 Carla Suarez Navarro 1624 62.67% 35.98% 13.31% 6.45% 2.63% 1.20% 0.48%
122 Eugenie Bouchard 1534 37.33% 16.65% 4.59% 1.68% 0.50% 0.17% 0.05%
123 Marketa Vondrousova 1542 42.57% 18.38% 5.21% 1.95% 0.61% 0.21% 0.06%
124 Peng Shuai 1594 57.43% 29.00% 9.77% 4.34% 1.61% 0.67% 0.24%
125 Beatriz Haddad Maia 1476 58.27% 10.66% 3.72% 1.10% 0.26% 0.07% 0.02%
126 Laura Robson 1418 41.73% 5.96% 1.66% 0.39% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00%
127 Marina Erakovic 1425 10.57% 4.88% 1.40% 0.34% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
128 Simona Halep 1796 89.43% 78.50% 60.35% 42.65% 26.86% 18.28% 11.57%

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