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| Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- As you would expect, Andy Murray is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 39.26% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic next at 23.23%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 7.61% and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4th with 4.93%
- Marcel Granollers has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 46th most likely winner, while he is only the 60th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Andrey Kuznetsov has the toughest draw. He is the 58th most likely winner, but he is the 42nd highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Alexandr Dolgopolov, as he's the 76th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 38th of the competitors.
- Julien Bennetau got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 50th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 86th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
(Updated after Mikhail Kukuskhin replaced Dmitry Tursunov)
(Updated after Mikhail Kukuskhin replaced Dmitry Tursunov)
| Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Murray | 2015 | 100.00% | 95.80% | 90.61% | 80.14% | 66.08% | 56.35% | 39.26% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Vasek Pospisil | 1469 | 49.28% | 2.04% | 0.89% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Yen-Hsun Lu | 1474 | 50.72% | 2.16% | 0.96% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Dusan Lajovic | 1484 | 58.41% | 24.13% | 1.56% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1425 | 41.59% | 13.89% | 0.68% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Feliciano Lopez | 1545 | 100.00% | 61.99% | 5.29% | 1.88% | 0.52% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | 1651 | 100.00% | 71.22% | 34.44% | 5.64% | 2.25% | 0.97% | 0.25% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Peter Gojowczyk | 1477 | 45.69% | 12.27% | 3.25% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Reilly Opelka | 1507 | 54.31% | 16.50% | 4.92% | 0.45% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| Juan Monaco | 1571 | 64.27% | 20.24% | 9.12% | 1.09% | 0.33% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| Adrian Mannarino | 1469 | 35.73% | 7.27% | 2.32% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Roberto Bautista Agut | 1706 | 100.00% | 72.49% | 45.96% | 9.26% | 4.35% | 2.20% | 0.69% |
| David Goffin | 1715 | 100.00% | 75.82% | 52.85% | 24.80% | 5.92% | 3.07% | 0.99% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Tommy Robredo | 1517 | 50.14% | 12.15% | 5.17% | 1.26% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| Karen Khachanov | 1516 | 49.86% | 12.03% | 5.10% | 1.24% | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| Damir Dzumhur | 1509 | 40.61% | 15.99% | 4.73% | 1.12% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| Ryan Harrison | 1575 | 59.39% | 28.92% | 10.85% | 3.29% | 0.46% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1584 | 100.00% | 55.09% | 21.30% | 6.66% | 0.96% | 0.33% | 0.06% |
| Pablo Cuevas | 1575 | 100.00% | 59.80% | 15.26% | 6.24% | 0.87% | 0.29% | 0.05% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Martin Klizan | 1520 | 54.45% | 22.95% | 4.69% | 1.59% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| Thiago Monteiro | 1489 | 45.55% | 17.25% | 3.09% | 0.93% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Fabio Fognini | 1570 | 69.73% | 13.55% | 7.21% | 2.90% | 0.40% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| Konstantin Kravchuk | 1425 | 30.27% | 2.87% | 0.95% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1817 | 100.00% | 83.58% | 68.80% | 49.75% | 16.78% | 10.99% | 4.93% |
| Stan Wawrinka | 1767 | 100.00% | 81.40% | 58.38% | 36.78% | 23.43% | 7.26% | 2.80% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Robin Haase | 1514 | 51.01% | 9.64% | 3.59% | 1.09% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| Paolo Lorenzi | 1507 | 48.99% | 8.96% | 3.26% | 0.96% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| Alexandr Dolgopolov | 1564 | 45.27% | 18.89% | 5.67% | 2.06% | 0.75% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| Victor Troicki | 1597 | 54.73% | 25.40% | 8.59% | 3.47% | 1.41% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1622 | 100.00% | 55.71% | 20.51% | 8.97% | 3.95% | 0.71% | 0.16% |
| Ivo Karlovic | 1610 | 100.00% | 69.63% | 26.81% | 10.39% | 4.40% | 0.75% | 0.16% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Yoshihito Nishioka | 1496 | 61.86% | 21.13% | 5.36% | 1.36% | 0.38% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| Elias Ymer | 1412 | 38.14% | 9.24% | 1.64% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bjorn Fratangelo | 1457 | 36.66% | 5.98% | 2.09% | 0.45% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Bernard Tomic | 1552 | 63.34% | 15.96% | 7.61% | 2.41% | 0.84% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Tomas Berdych | 1741 | 100.00% | 78.06% | 56.49% | 31.75% | 19.14% | 5.42% | 1.92% |
| Gael Monfils | 1718 | 100.00% | 77.57% | 51.12% | 31.23% | 16.20% | 4.22% | 1.38% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1517 | 54.73% | 13.09% | 5.12% | 1.76% | 0.47% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| Darian King | 1484 | 45.27% | 9.34% | 3.26% | 0.99% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Jordan Thompson | 1462 | 51.29% | 13.32% | 3.24% | 0.90% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | 1453 | 48.71% | 12.17% | 2.86% | 0.77% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| John Isner | 1644 | 100.00% | 74.51% | 34.40% | 17.59% | 7.36% | 1.45% | 0.36% |
| Mischa Zverev | 1570 | 100.00% | 52.89% | 19.91% | 7.53% | 2.45% | 0.35% | 0.06% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Joao Sousa | 1558 | 52.44% | 25.32% | 9.15% | 3.32% | 1.03% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| Diego Schwartzman | 1541 | 47.56% | 21.80% | 7.42% | 2.54% | 0.74% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| Radu Albot | 1410 | 33.51% | 5.13% | 1.52% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Jeremy Chardy | 1529 | 66.49% | 17.56% | 7.98% | 2.61% | 0.73% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Dominic Thiem | 1707 | 100.00% | 77.31% | 54.02% | 30.44% | 15.33% | 3.84% | 1.21% |
| Marin Cilic | 1736 | 100.00% | 79.75% | 62.09% | 32.02% | 18.07% | 5.57% | 1.74% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Benoit Paire | 1521 | 58.41% | 13.13% | 6.64% | 1.63% | 0.47% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| Taylor Fritz | 1462 | 41.59% | 7.12% | 3.00% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Nicolas Mahut | 1540 | 54.88% | 29.96% | 9.22% | 2.45% | 0.75% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| Malek Jaziri | 1506 | 45.12% | 22.43% | 6.07% | 1.40% | 0.38% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Marcel Granollers | 1508 | 100.00% | 47.61% | 12.98% | 3.02% | 0.82% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| Jack Sock | 1726 | 100.00% | 77.58% | 39.13% | 23.24% | 12.80% | 3.81% | 1.15% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Henri Laaksonen | 1465 | 39.78% | 7.24% | 1.46% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Borna Coric | 1537 | 60.22% | 15.17% | 4.10% | 1.44% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 1554 | 58.83% | 13.35% | 4.47% | 1.66% | 0.54% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| Mikhail Youzhny | 1492 | 41.17% | 7.01% | 1.86% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 1767 | 100.00% | 79.64% | 48.97% | 31.60% | 19.13% | 6.59% | 2.28% |
| Lucas Pouille | 1661 | 100.00% | 78.93% | 46.94% | 20.48% | 8.66% | 2.00% | 0.48% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Santiago Giraldo | 1435 | 51.01% | 10.92% | 3.17% | 0.59% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 1428 | 48.99% | 10.16% | 2.87% | 0.51% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Donald Young | 1568 | 63.07% | 26.50% | 11.56% | 3.69% | 1.13% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| Stefan Kozlov | 1475 | 36.93% | 11.00% | 3.52% | 0.78% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Sam Querrey | 1624 | 100.00% | 62.51% | 31.95% | 12.40% | 4.64% | 0.92% | 0.19% |
| Gilles Muller | 1657 | 100.00% | 69.38% | 27.47% | 15.18% | 6.34% | 1.44% | 0.34% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Renzo Olivo | 1485 | 42.71% | 11.57% | 2.38% | 0.77% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Jiri Vesely | 1536 | 57.29% | 19.05% | 4.85% | 1.87% | 0.51% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| Dustin Brown | 1518 | 39.37% | 7.13% | 2.63% | 0.95% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| Daniel Evans | 1593 | 60.63% | 15.41% | 7.24% | 3.35% | 1.13% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Kei Nishikori | 1780 | 100.00% | 77.46% | 55.43% | 39.44% | 23.09% | 8.31% | 3.00% |
| Rafael Nadal | 1810 | 100.00% | 88.70% | 70.13% | 35.47% | 14.24% | 8.85% | 3.50% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Guillermo Garcia-Lopez | 1449 | 49.14% | 5.47% | 1.79% | 0.25% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Guido Pella | 1455 | 50.86% | 5.83% | 1.95% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 1514 | 47.84% | 17.54% | 3.56% | 0.66% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Thomaz Bellucci | 1529 | 52.16% | 20.18% | 4.35% | 0.86% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Fernando Verdasco | 1609 | 100.00% | 62.28% | 18.22% | 4.90% | 0.97% | 0.34% | 0.07% |
| Steve Johnson | 1615 | 100.00% | 60.04% | 14.00% | 4.78% | 0.97% | 0.35% | 0.07% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Kevin Anderson | 1576 | 62.27% | 27.65% | 5.53% | 1.65% | 0.28% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| Federico Gaio | 1489 | 37.73% | 12.31% | 1.71% | 0.36% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Stephane Robert | 1427 | 45.55% | 3.35% | 0.96% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dudi Sela | 1458 | 54.45% | 4.72% | 1.52% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Roger Federer | 1867 | 100.00% | 91.93% | 76.28% | 50.35% | 23.71% | 16.44% | 7.61% |
| Nick Kyrgios | 1720 | 100.00% | 81.28% | 48.70% | 12.78% | 4.86% | 2.43% | 0.72% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Marius Copil | 1489 | 58.97% | 12.34% | 3.74% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Horacio Zeballos | 1426 | 41.03% | 6.38% | 1.52% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Julien Bennetau | 1447 | 54.88% | 10.92% | 2.49% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Facundo Bagnis | 1413 | 45.12% | 7.65% | 1.51% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Alexander Zverev | 1689 | 100.00% | 81.43% | 42.04% | 9.83% | 3.36% | 1.53% | 0.41% |
| Juan Martin del Potro | 1713 | 100.00% | 73.76% | 15.91% | 8.57% | 3.19% | 1.56% | 0.45% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Federico Delbonis | 1508 | 43.70% | 10.27% | 0.92% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Andrey Kuznetsov | 1552 | 56.30% | 15.96% | 1.75% | 0.57% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| Kyle Edmund | 1559 | 62.94% | 5.12% | 1.82% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| Gastao Elias | 1467 | 37.06% | 1.84% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Novak Djokovic | 1980 | 100.00% | 93.04% | 79.14% | 66.49% | 47.67% | 38.63% | 23.23% |
